[Ubuntu-BD] Windows' Endgame. Desktop Linux's Failure

[Shumon]

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Shumon

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/open-source/windows-endgame-desktop-linuxs-failure/9109

*Windows' Endgame. Desktop Linux's Failure*

“After nearly a decade, Microsoft’s reign as a monopoly is over.” … “The
latest real-world data on web usage confirms that Microsoft’s once-dominant
position in the world of personal computing is crumbling.” That’s not me,
the Linux guy speaking. No, that’s Ed Bott, who’s as much a Windows fan as I
am a Linux fan. Ed’s the one, not me, who’s saying that “if Windows 8 flops
on phones and tablets, Microsoft’s future is very dim indeed.”

Desktop Linux’s future isn’t any better. Windows isn’t declining because of
Linux’s security or stability benefits. No, as Ed points out, it’s declining
because of the rise of mobile computing. Apple’s iPhone and iPad are the
‘villians” in the mystery of who killing Windows. And, they’re also killing
off the traditional desktop Linux.

When I say this though I don’t mean that Windows won’t still be on computers
in 2021. It will be. What it won’t be though is the dominant computing
platform. Unlike Ed, I do think that Microsoft is moving too late to a
mobile, tablet-based computing paradigm. Windows 8 will be too little, too
late.

Linux, however, is in a funny place. Linux, through Android, is becoming an
important operating system for end-users. Most people don’t know it though.
If you ask them “Could you use Linux?” If they even know what Linux is,
they’ll say “No.” Ask them can they use their phone, they’ll say “Yes, of
course.”

We’ve seen this before People having been using Linux without realizing it
for years now thanks to Google, Yahoo, and the thousands of other major Web
sites that rely on Linux for their server operating system. We’ll see this
in the future not only with the continued rise of Android but with all the
other mobile Linux systems such as HP’s webOS, Google’s Chromebooks; and
MeeGo.

None of these though are traditional Linux desktops. Only Ubuntu’s Unity
comes from what most of who’ve been using Linux for years think of as
mainstream Linux. Perhaps Unity will become a major player in the mobile
space. I fear it may also be a case of too little, too late, but we’ll see
what we see.

So it is that while I’m now more sure than ever that Linux, thanks to its
presence in servers, cloud, and mobile devices, will eventually be more
important than Windows, I also think that almost no one will know it. Linux
will–indeed already is–become the foundation on which many other user
systems will be built. But both desktop Windows and Linux are going to
decline.