Evolution

[Leif Gregory]

On Mon, 28 Jul 2008 17:53:51 -0600
Karl Larsen <k5di at zianet.com> wrote:

>     OK your such a lier and think telling lies make them right. So 
> please do exactly what I do. Look at the results and give us all the 
> results. Then try to make it look like your stuff.

I can't quite make out if you're asking me to give you statistics on
where you were wrong or not.. But if it'd make you happy send me an
e-mail off-list and I'll do it for you. Not sure it's going to make
your life any better for it.

So let me put this another way. If you want people to take your "work"
seriously, then you need to do it seriously. You need to come up with a
methodology that is going to give you results (whether they match your
expectations or not, the whole, lies, damned lies, and statistics
stuff) in a manner that is as accurate as possible and is repeatable by
others.

Here, I'll even get you started.

1. You need a way of parsing through messages to extract the MUA

2. You need to dedupe those results so that you don't count say, me
more than once for using Claws Mail. This is a problem in your current
methodology.

3. There are thousands upon thousands of Ubuntu users out there, and
there is a reasonable expectation that the majority of them use e-mail.
Your problem is to find a data source that captures a very good cross
section of those users. This is another flaw in your methodology.
Here's why.

a. Some users on this list are much more vocal than others, therefore
the chance that your sample (which you've decided on 100 messages)
contains a greater weight of the vocal users is more likely. See number
2. Therefore, your methodology must include a way to get a sample of
100 messages with no dupes. That means you're most likely going to have
to parse more than 100 messages to get your sample. This brings up
point 3b.

b. Your methodology is flawed in that you're sampling only messages, not
users. Some people here have already mentioned that they use different
clients based on where they're at. i.e. Apple Mail at home, Thunderbird
at work etc. You're going to need to account for single users who use
more than one client. If you don't it will skew your results. You're
trying to show what the most popular MUA, and those folks will throw
off your results that could potentially degrade your case.

4. Is this list the right place to take your sample. Probably not. I
don't believe it's truly representative of the Ubuntu population at
large. If I want to sample the homosexual population as a percentage
of the overall population, my results are going to be completely
different if I take my sample in Albuquerque vs Santa Fe (where the gay
and lesbian community is much larger). You need to find a place you can
get your sample that reflect the Ubuntu community at large.

So why is a list not representative? I ran five discussion lists like
this one from 1997 till early 2007. One thing we discovered is that new
users typically flocked to forums first rather than e-mail lists.

We even watched some long-time members of the lists go to forums
because it was easier to find their answer due to the persistence of
the threads in a searchable manner.

So, you have to ask yourself, which population do you want to sample
from.

Well, there's the basics Karl, if you can't understand where you went
wrong from the above, then do what you're doing now but don't come back
whining that nobody takes you seriously and Evolution doesn't get
dropped as a default install.

Now if you really want to do it right, make a strong case with
verifiable facts, then read up on statistical analysis. Google will
nets you tons of great info. I'm not going to be able to help you in
that arena, way too much math for me.

Here's one to get you started with regards to an acceptable sample
size. This will at least tell you if your 100 messages is sufficient.

http://stattrek.com/Lesson6/SampleSize.aspx?Tutorial=Stat



-- 
Leif Gregory
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